Problems of using automatic identification system messages in the task of forecasting vessel movement trajectories

The article addresses the problem of forecasting vessel movement trajectories, which is integral to safe divergence systems for predicting and assessing navigation situations. For accurate navigation situation assessment, safe divergence systems must generate precise forecasts of target vessel trajectories. It is established that addressed and broadcast messages of the Automatic Identification System (AIS) with IDs 1, 2, 3, and 5 (dynamic and static information), as well as messages with IDs 6 and 8 (route information), can be utilized for this purpose. The format of route information messages, as per IMO Circular SN.1/Circ.289, is presented. The use of route information in forecasting target vessel trajectories enhances prediction accuracy and improves navigation situation assessment. However, certain challenges in using route information are identified, along with examples of incorrect operation in trajectory prediction systems. It is demonstrated that the route information currently transmitted in AIS messages is insufficient for accurate trajectory prediction. This limitation arises because the existing route information transmission system was not originally designed for trajectory prediction tasks. Consequently, the limited applicability of current AIS messages is highlighted, and the necessity of developing a dedicated route information transmission system via AIS channels to address trajectory prediction tasks is substantiated. Proposals for the content of AIS messages in such a system are formulated.