The impact of assembly history on the X-ray detectability of halos

Galaxy groups represent a significant fraction of the halo population, playing a crucial role in galaxy formation and evolution. However, their detection in X-rays remains challenging, raising questions about the physical mechanisms driving their detectability in current surveys. Using the Magneticum simulations, we construct a mock X-ray lightcone of the local Universe ( z < 0.2) to investigate the selection function of galaxy groups and clusters. We find that the central supermassive black holes (SMBH) activity is a key driver of baryon depletion, but late-time mergers boost X-ray brightness by replenishing the gas reservoir in the halos, highlighting the interplay between feedback processes and the environment. Our analysis shows that X-ray bright groups experience sustained late-time mass accretion, maintaining higher gas fractions and fuelling the central SMBH, further increasing the X-ray emissivity in the core. In contrast, X-ray faint groups form earlier and lose most of their gas over time, resembling fossil groups. These faint groups reside preferentially in under-dense regions, unable to re-accrete efficiently baryons at later times. Magneticum predicts strong anti-correlations between gas fraction (or X-ray luminosity) and SMBH mass, stellar mass (both in the central galaxy and intracluster light), and group richness at fixed halo mass. We derive predictions on the hot gas fraction at fixed halos mass (e.g. a group of total mass M 500 = 10 13 M ⊙ can have hot gas fractions in the range f gas = 0.02 − 0.06 and a central SMBH with a median mass of M BH = 10 9 M ⊙ and a scatter of 0.5 dex) compatible with the most recent measurements of the baryonic fraction. These findings will aid the interpretation of future X-ray surveys, demonstrating the power of simulation-based inference.