Chinese natural gas phase-out pathways: A novel hybrid scenario-specific projection approach to achieve Net Zero

Under China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal, the country’s long-term natural gas consumption is expected to shift to renewable energy, electrification, and energy efficiency measures, ultimately leading to zero natural gas consumption. However, the natural gas consumption projections by 2060 are unlikely to align with this goal. Besides, uncertainties from domestic structural changes by market liberalisation and natural gas price volatility by ongoing international developments render these projections uncertain. Considering the uncertainties, this study develops a novel hybrid Prophet-Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous regressors model for long-term projections of China’s natural gas consumption under three scenarios and then reevaluate the likelihood of achieving its genuine carbon neutrality with the projected natural gas consumption. The study demonstrates that this hybrid model is highly suitable for scenario-specific projections, employing two conservative estimation methods: comparisons with other hybrid models and error bands. Key findings suggest that phasing out natural gas in China by 2060 is unlikely. In response, the study provides key driver pathways for zero Chinese NG consumption by utilising the One Earth Climate Model scenario. The study also highlights the advantages of the hybrid model for developing long-term policies and business plans and how the proposed driver pathways provide policy implications towards carbon neutrality in China. • A novel hybrid model for scenario-based projections of China’s natural gas demand • Phasing out natural gas in China by 2060 under its decarbonisation goal is unlikely • Propose China’s natural gas phase-out pathways toward its genuine carbon neutrality • Suggest to address green externalities, price distortions, and infrastructure