Timing Matters: How pre- and post-holiday promotions affect fresh and frozen product sales in grocery retail

This study investigates the impact of promotional timing on fresh and frozen product sales during holiday periods within the supermarket sector. Using a comprehensive dataset from an Austrian retail chain, spanning six years and over 19 million transaction lines, the research highlights the critical interplay between promotional strategies, consumer purchasing behavior, and product perishability. The findings reveal that pre-holiday promotions are particularly effective for fresh products such as fruits, vegetables, meat, and fish, leveraging consumer urgency due to store closures and perishability. In contrast, frozen products exhibit more stable sales patterns, with less pronounced effects from promotional timing due to their suitability for stockpiling. The analysis emphasizes the importance of tailored promotional strategies. Five key implications emerge: the necessity of timing promotions for fresh products to capitalize on consumer urgency, the reduced sensitivity of frozen products to promotional timing, the effectiveness of promotions for high-frequency items in driving sales and traffic, the importance of customizing promotions by product type and leveraging deal intensity, and the critical role of accurate forecasting to minimize waste, particularly for frozen goods. These insights contribute to both theoretical understanding and practical strategies, offering retailers actionable recommendations to enhance sales performance, optimize inventory management, and reduce wastage during holiday periods. The study also highlights avenues for future research, including product-level analyses and the exploration of consumer behavior across different holiday types.