Frost shocks negatively impact the supply of high-stem juicing apples in Switzerland

Mixed farming and agroforestry systems aim to provide both economic diversification and ecological and environmental benefits. However, downstream actors relying on singular outputs originating from these farms may lack comparable resilience to identical shocks. We analyse the impact that frost shocks have on meadow orchard apple supplies to a juicer-processor in Switzerland. We use a panel dataset of 1746 observations containing supplied quantities of apples to a major Swiss juicer, originating from extensive meadow orchards, to 291 delivery points in Switzerland between the years 2016–2021. We merge the supply data with apple phenology data and temperature data. We use fixed effects regression with piecewise linear splines to identify the effect of a frost shock during the flowering period on supply shocks of apples to the juicer, where shocks are defined as random and exogenous deviations of average extreme weather. Frost has a significant effect on the quantity of apples delivered to the juicer. Under every degree-hour of frost exposure, supplied apple quantities at postcodes decrease by 394.3 kg. The juicer faces an average input shortfall of 8 %, or 11,548.2 kg of apples, per year due to frostier-than-average temperatures. The systemic and volatile nature of frost shocks, and the inaccessibility of international apple supplies, make the risks posed by frost for Swiss apple processors especially keen. We are among the first to quantify impacts of extreme weather on the downstream food supply chain. We illustrate that studying risks and sustainability in agriculture and food production too often ignore impacts beyond the farm-level. • High-stem meadow orchards are diverse, and historically and ecologically valuable • Frost shocks during flowering are a critical risk in apple production • Very limited research on impact of farm-level shocks on the downstream value-chain • Spring frost significantly impacts the supply of juicing apples in Switzerland • Mismatch in economic resilience between farms and dependent processors