Within-year stability and changes in adolescents’ cross-domain motivational profiles: Predictions on academic achievement and educational choices.

Supporting propositions of the situated expectancy-value theory, abundant research has shown academic motivation to predict students' school achievement and choices. Less explored, however, are individual differences in motivational dynamics, which may offer further perspectives on the formation of educational pathways. This study aimed at elucidating how stability and change in adolescents' cross-domain motivational profiles within the last year of basic education are connected with their final grades and the selection of general versus vocational upper secondary school programs. A nationally representative sample of Finnish students (N = 1,590, M-age = 14.8 years, 53% girls) reported their motivation (self-concept; intrinsic, attainment, and utility value; cost) for math and language arts twice during the academic year: in the fall and again in early spring. Grades and the chosen educational program were derived from national registers. Data were analyzed using latent profile and latent transition analyses. We identified five motivational profiles in both semesters: Adjusted (overall moderate motivation; 33% at T1/33% at T2), Highly motivated (overall high motivation; 23%/26%), and Unattached (overall low motivation; 20%/14%) were characterized by similar motivation for the two subjects, Math-motivated (13%/16%) and Language-motivated (11%/12%) by differentiated patterns. Expectedly, the Highly motivated received the highest grades and were the most likely to opt for general programs. The Unattached, in turn, were prone to motivational changes. Gender and prior achievement predicted profile memberships and changes to a considerable extent, while motivational shifts had unique value in predicting both grades and educational choices prior to a crucial educational transition.