Complex Remote Sensing Analysis of Fire Precursors in the Tropical Region: Case Study

Wildfires pose significant threats to tropical ecosystems, yet, fire precursors in these regions are not well understood. This study conducts a statistical analysis of fire precursors in the tropical area of Antioquia, Colombia, using remote sensing data from VIIRS and MODIS satellites. We integrated and pre-processed data on fire occurrences, the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), land classifications, and various weather and soil variables to ensure compatibility for statistical analysis. Our findings reveal that reductions in EVI by 3.9% and relative humidity by 21%, coupled with increases in air temperature by 4.9 °C, soil temperature by 2.77 °C, and wind speed by 0.17 m/s, are significant precursors to fire occurrences in this tropical region. Notably, precipitation and soil moisture did not show definitive correlations with fire events, contrasting with findings in temperate regions. Spatial and temporal analyses indicate that fires are more frequent during the first three months of the year and tend to recur in specific areas, suggesting persistent environmental risks and human influences, particularly in built-up areas. The limitations of the study include reliance on a single land classification dataset from 2020, which may not account for land cover changes over the study period, and the coarse temporal resolution of EVI data that could overlook rapid vegetation changes. Despite these limitations, the results provide valuable insights for enhancing early warning systems, informing policy development, and improving resource allocation for fire risk management in tropical ecosystems.