Was it a washout? Analyzing the influence of a high intensity, countywide gang crackdown on the formation of new co-offending relationships

In 2021, the US Marshals Service (USMS) partnered with law enforcement agencies across Galveston County, TX to conduct Operation Washout (OW), a 10-day operation intended to reduce violent crime through the execution of arrest warrants targeting gang members, firearm, and drug law violators. This study examines the impact of OW on the co-offending of OW arrestees. Arrest data for all of Galveston County are scraped from Police2Citizen Bulletins and used to construct pre- and post-OW co-offending networks. Networks consist of individuals arrested during the intervention, as well as all co-offenders in distance one or two. Stochastic actor-oriented models are estimated to model the formation of new co-offending relationships. Arrest during the operation was generally associated with a reduced likelihood of forming new co-offending ties. The probability of forming new co-offending ties following OW was greater among operational targets than non-target fugitives and non-fugitive arrestees apprehended during the intervention. The estimated effect of OW on targets' co-offending was insignificant. Consistent with research on Operation Triple Beam, USMS-led fugitive operations effectively target higher priority fugitives. Despite the selection of appropriate operational targets, fugitives' ability to forge new co-offending relationships appears unimpeded by arrest – barring the requisite period of incapacitation. • Arrest during Operation Washout preceded a reduction in the probability of forming new co-offending relationships. • Operational targets were slightly more resistant to arrest than non-target fugitives arrested during the intervention. • Fugitives' tendency to establish new co-offending relationships appears undeterred by arrest, prevented by incapacitation.