Enhancing Solar Radiation Storm Forecasting with Machine Learning and Physics Models at Korea Space Weather Center

Solar radiation storms, caused by high-energy solar energetic particles (SEPs) released during solar flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs), have a substantial impact on the Earth’s environment. These storms can disrupt satellite operations, interfere with high-frequency (HF) communications, and increase the radiation exposure of high-altitude flights. To reduce these effects, the Korea Space Weather Center (KSWC) monitors and forecasts solar radiation storms using satellite data and predictive models. This paper introduces the space weather forecasting methods employed by the KSWC and the analysis approach for satellite data from GOES, SDO, the LASCO coronagraph, and STEREO. We introduce a predictive model for solar radiation storms, which is composed of two key components: (1) a machine learning model, which is trained using solar flare and CME data obtained from satellite observations, and (2) a physics-based model that incorporates the mechanisms of SEP generation through CMEs approaching the Earth. The machine learning model primarily forecasts the peak intensity of solar radiation storms based on real-time solar activity data, while the physics-informed model enhances the interpretability and understanding of the machine learning model’s predictions. The effectiveness and operability of this approach have been tested at the KSWC.