Interplay of Topography, Fire History, and Climate on Interior Alaska Boreal Forest Vegetation Dynamics in the 21st Century: A Landsat Time-Series Analysis

This study investigates vegetation dynamics in boreal forests of Interior Alaska, focusing on topography, fire history, and climate influences. The study area includes Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest (BCEF) and surrounding region, categorized by topography (upland, floodplain, lowland) and fire history. Using Mann–Kendall trend and Theil–Sen slope analyses on Landsat-derived spectral metrics: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), we observed a shift from browning to greening trends, particularly in historically burned areas. The photosynthetic activity in burned upland converged with unburned areas ~30 years post-fire, coincident with a shift towards deciduous dominance during post-fire succession. Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) trends revealed a significant increase in vegetation moisture content across all topographies. We introduce Effective Seasonal Precipitation Index (ESPI), which combines prior-year annual precipitation with current-year spring snow depth. Its positive correlation with NDMI highlights its potential for monitoring vegetation moisture dynamics at the landscape scale. Furthermore, by correlating dendrochronology-based climate indices, we found strong correlation between NDMI and normalized Supplemental Precipitation Index (nSPI), across topographies. Overall, this research provides critical insights into how climate and fire influence interior boreal vegetation, highlighting the effects of increased precipitation, and topography on shaping differential vegetation responses across the landscape.