Characteristics and Forecasting of Rocky Desertification Dynamics in the Pearl River Source Region from 1990 to 2030

Rocky desertification is a significant ecological issue in the karst regions of Southwest China, severely affecting both the environment and local livelihoods. Accurate extraction and prediction of rocky desertification are critical for its prevention and control, playing a crucial role in advancing ecological civilization and sustainable land management. This study focuses on the Pearl River source area in Yunnan, analyzing dynamic changes in rocky desertification over eight periods from 1990 to 2023, using long-term remote sensing data and multi-source reference data. It also predicts the intensity and trends of rocky desertification for the next decade. The results indicate that: (1) Rocky desertification is widespread and severe in the study area; however, its further intensification has been effectively mitigated through long-term governance efforts. By 2023, an area of 14,896.19 km2 of rocky desertification has been mitigated to varying extents, accounting for 55.77% of the total watershed area. Trend analysis suggests that, under current management conditions, rocky desertification will continue to decline and improve over time. (2) The overall development of rocky desertification in the basin is showing a positive trend, with deep-level rocky desertification gradually transitioning to shallow-level rocky desertification. In future scenarios, the extent of rocky desertification will continue to decrease. (3) The approach of integrating the Google Earth Engine with traditional remote sensing platforms for extracting rocky desertification information has proven to be both fast and efficient. This method retains high extraction accuracy while alleviating the data burden typically associated with exclusive use of local platforms, thereby enhancing processing efficiency.