Climate change and conservation strategies for the Anhui musk deer: habitat suitability and climate refuges in the Dabie Mountains

Restricted to the densely populated regions of Eastern China, musk deer populations have dramatically declined over the past several centuries, primarily due to extensive poaching and significant habitat loss. In recent years, the Anhui musk deer has further faced an extremely high risk of extinction as a result of climate change and escalating human disturbances. However, research on the Anhui musk deer based on extensive field survey data remains limited, thereby constraining the development of effective conservation strategies. This study aims to evaluate the current and future habitat suitability of the Anhui musk deer, assess the vulnerability of these habitats to climate change, and delineate potential refuges that could support the population amidst climatic shifts. Additionally, we seek to identify ecological corridors that would facilitate dispersal among habitat patches under changing climate conditions. Occurrence locations (N = 101) of the Anhui musk deer were collected using large-scale infrared camera monitoring data from 2013 to 2023. The MaxEnt model was employed to predict suitable habitat and assess the potential impacts of climate change. A gap analysis was then conducted to identify deficiencies in current nature reserves, and potential climate refuges were determined based on areas of stable habitat. Subsequently, connectivity analysis was performed to identify potential ecological corridors between habitat patches. The Anhui musk deer is highly sensitive to temperature and human disturbance. The total area of suitable habitat for Anhui musk deer is 1188.90 km2 currently, with only 11 habitat patches larger than 5 km2 (median patch size = 79.05 km2; and mean = 19.84 km2). Future projections suggest a continuous decline in suitable habitat, with areas decreasing to 1,052.45 km2 by 2050, 841.82 km2 by 2070, and 798.35 km2 by 2090. Currently, nature reserves encompass only 38.52% of the suitable habitat. Climate refuges for the Anhui musk deer cover 586.24 km2, but 44.38% of these areas remain unprotected. The construction of 14 potential ecological corridors connecting isolated populations to core populations could mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and protect the Anhui musk deer population. Our findings indicated that the habitat area of Anhui musk deer will continue to decline under future climate conditions, and current conservation efforts are insufficient. The remaining Anhui musk deer populations in the Dabie Mountains should be considered as regional populations and managed meticulously to ensure their long-term survival under human disturbances and climate warming.