Spatial Analysis of Water Conservation and Its Driving Factors in an Urban Citarum Tropical Watershed: Geospatial Approach

Water conservation (WC) is a vital ecosystem service (ES) that plays an essential role in the sustainable management of water resources and ensures ecological security. This research examines the WC capacity of the Citarum watershed in West Java Province, Indonesia, from 2010 to 2020. The specific objectives of this research are as follows: (1) to assess the 10-year temporal and spatial variations of WC using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) and topographic index model; (2) to analyze the temporal interchange between WC and its influencing factors through the Spatial Elastic Coefficient Trajectory Model (SECTM); and (3) to determine the driving factors (DFs) affecting WC by applying Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). Key findings of this study reveal significant trends in WC from 2010 to 2020: the average WC in the Citarum watershed decreased from 513.96 mm/ha to 453.64 mm/ha (11.74%), indicating a concerning decline in ES capacity. This study also noted that regions implementing comprehensive regulations dominated the study area, covering approximately 72.70% of the total area (502,295 hectares). This illustrates that the implementation of rules plays a crucial role in the WC. Lastly, the MGWR analysis found that WC in the Citarum watershed positively correlated with topography, climate, and vegetation while negatively correlating with socioeconomic factors. This indicates that WC levels are generally lower in areas with higher human activity and economic growth, highlighting the impact of anthropogenic pressures on natural resources. This framework helps stakeholders plan to ensure sustainable development in the area, as it provides valuable insights into the interactions between the ecological and socioeconomic factors affecting WC.