Numerical Modeling and Sea Trial Studies of Oil Spills in the Sea Area from Haikou to Danzhou

This study utilized the FVCOM model to establish a hydrodynamic model for the waters from Haikou to Danzhou. Based on this framework, a numerical model for oil spill drift and diffusion was developed using the Lagrangian particle method, incorporating processes such as advection, diffusion, spreading, emulsification, dissolution, volatilization, and shoreline adsorption. Sea experiments involving drifters and dye were conducted to validate the oil spill model. The model was subsequently applied to analyze the impacts of tidal phases and wind fields on oil spill trajectories, predict affected areas, and assess risks to environmentally sensitive zones. The results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model accurately reproduces the tidal current characteristics of the study area. Validation using drifter and dye experiments confirmed that the model’s predictive error remains within 20%, meeting operational forecasting standards. Potential sources of error include uncertainties in wind–wave–current interactions and discrepancies in windage coefficients between oil spills and drifters. Tidal currents and wind fields were identified as the dominant drivers of oil spill drift and diffusion. Under southerly wind conditions, the oil spill exhibited the largest spatial extent, covering 995.25 km2 with a trajectory length of 226.92 km. A sensitivity analysis highlighted the Lingao Silverlip Pearl Oyster Marine Protected Area and Shatu Bay Beach as high-risk regions. The developed model provides critical technical support for oil spill emergency response under diverse environmental conditions, enabling proactive pathway forecasting and preventive measures to mitigate ecological damage.