Residential Buildings at Climate Crossroads: Insights from Portugal for South European Energy Performance

This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the energy performance of residential buildings across Portugal’s diverse climatic regions, providing a representative reference for Southern European contexts. Dynamic energy simulations using EnergyPlus were conducted for standardised residential building models in five cities: Bragança, Porto, Lisbon, Évora, and Faro. Three climate scenarios were analysed: present-day conditions (TMY2021), the current regulatory scenario (LNEG-EPW), and a projected mid-century scenario (CCW-EPW). Results indicate substantial regional variations, with significant increases in cooling demands and corresponding reductions in heating needs, exposing limitations in the regulatory climate files currently used in energy certification processes. These findings emphasise the critical need to incorporate predictive climatic scenarios into building design standards and energy policies. Adopting such an approach will enhance residential building resilience, ensure thermal comfort, reduce energy consumption, and contribute to sustainable development goals. These insights offer practical guidance for policymakers, urban planners, architects, and engineers aiming to effectively adapt residential buildings to anticipated climatic shifts, facilitating proactive and informed decision-making to address future energy challenges.