Insights into the linkages of forest structure dynamics with ecosystem services

Large-scale land cover changes leading to land degradation and deforestation in fragile ecosystems such as the Western Ghats have impaired ecosystem services, evident from the conversion of perennial water bodies to seasonal, which necessitates an understanding of forest structure dynamics with ecosystem services to evolve appropriate location-specific mitigation measures to arrest land degradation. The current study evaluates the extent and condition of forest ecosystems in Goa of the Central Western Ghats, a biodiversity hotspot. Land use dynamics is assessed through a supervised hierarchical classifier based on the Random Forest Machine Learning Algorithm, revealing that total forest cover declined by 3.75% during the post-1990s due to market forces associated with globalization. Likely land uses predicated through the CA-Markov-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) highlight a decline in evergreen forest cover of 10.98%. The carbon sequestration potential of forests in Goa assessed through the InVEST model highlights the storage of 56,131.16 Gg of carbon, which accounts for 373.47 billion INR (4.49 billion USD). The total ecosystem supply value (TESV) for forest ecosystems was computed by aggregating the provisioning, regulating, and cultural services, which accounts for 481.76 billion INR per year. TESV helps in accounting for the degradation cost of ecosystems towards the development of green GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Prioritization of Ecologically Sensitive Regions (ESR) considering bio-geo-climatic, ecological, and social characteristics at disaggregated levels reveals that 54.41% of the region is highly sensitive (ESR1 and ESR2). The outcome of the research offers invaluable insights for the formulation of strategic natural resource management approaches.