Bootstrap simulation of the effect of food control inspections on the number of Campylobacter and Salmonella infections and means to increase effectiveness of inspections

Food control inspections are performed to ensure food safety. Inspections have been demonstrated to decrease non-compliance with food safety legislation but quantified knowledge regarding the effect of inspections on the incidence of foodborne illnesses is scarce. We used bootstrap simulation to estimate the effect that changes in the compliance level of food establishments would have on Campylobacter and Salmonella incidences in Finland and examined means to improve the effectiveness of food control inspections. We estimated that if the compliance level of food establishments in all 62 food control units in Finland were in the range of the top half of the units, domestic Campylobacter infections would decrease by 12.1% and Salmonella infections by 12.4%. We demonstrated that item-specific inspection grades are associated with 1) the non-compliance correction percentage and 2) the percentage of inspections in which certain inspection items—mainly those related to temperature management [cold-stored foodstuffs (ρ = 0.34, p = 0.01), management of shelf life and sale period of product (ρ = 0.27, p = 0.03)] and actions of personnel [hygiene of work practices used by personnel (ρ = 0.43, p = 0.001), work clothes (ρ = 0.33, p = 0.01)]—were inspected. Shorter verbal descriptions of the inspection findings correlated with increased correction of some non-compliances, including non-compliances in chilling, adequacy of the own-check plan, cleanliness of the working utensils and equipment, and reception of foodstuffs. Food control units that experience difficulties in the correction of non-compliances should be supported to increase effectiveness of food control. • Simulation showed a decrease in foodborne illnesses if compliance would increase • Temperature management and actions of personnel benefited from more frequent attention • Length of inspector’s verbal description was associated with correction of violations