Why hours worked decline less after technology shocks?

The contractionary effect of technology shocks on hours gradually vanishes over time in OECD countries. To rationalize the decline in hours and its disappearance, we use a VAR-based decomposition of technology shocks into symmetric and asymmetric technology improvements. While hours decline dramatically when technology improves at the same rate across sectors, hours significantly increase when technology improvements occur at different rates. Because they are primarily driven by symmetric technology improvements, permanent technology shocks drive down total hours. Such a decline progressively vanishes due to the growing importance of asymmetric technology shocks. To reach these two conclusions, we simulate a two-sector model which can reproduce the contractionary effect on hours once the economy is internationally open and we allow for production factors’ mobility costs, factor-biased technological change, and home bias. To account for the vanishing decline in hours, we have to let the share of asymmetric technology shocks increase over time.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of International Economics
Published
2025-05-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104095
Primary Topic
Employment and Welfare Studies
Type
article
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article

Why hours worked decline less after technology shocks?

Olivier Cardi, Romain Restout
Journal of International Economics
Employment and Welfare Studies
article

Why hours worked decline less after technology shocks?

Olivier Cardi, Romain Restout
article en

Abstract

The contractionary effect of technology shocks on hours gradually vanishes over time in OECD countries. To rationalize the decline in hours and its disappearance, we use a VAR-based decomposition of technology shocks into symmetric and asymmetric technology improvements. While hours decline dramatically when technology improves at the same rate across sectors, hours significantly increase when technology improvements occur at different rates. Because they are primarily driven by symmetric technology improvements, permanent technology shocks drive down total hours. Such a decline progressively vanishes due to the growing importance of asymmetric technology shocks. To reach these two conclusions, we simulate a two-sector model which can reproduce the contractionary effect on hours once the economy is internationally open and we allow for production factors’ mobility costs, factor-biased technological change, and home bias. To account for the vanishing decline in hours, we have to let the share of asymmetric technology shocks increase over time.

Journal of International EconomicsVol. 157
Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas (FR), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Centre de Recherche en Économie et Management (FR), Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée (FR), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (FR), Lancaster University (GB), Université de Strasbourg (FR), Université de Lorraine (FR)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 84%
Employment and Welfare Studies
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Why hours worked decline less after technology shocks? — Olivier Cardi, Romain Restout · Journal of International Economics (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS