Participation in strategic foresight: feasibility of using nonexpert methods for megatrend assessment

Purpose This study aims to investigate whether the use of participatory methods involving nonexperts can improve the quality of foresight outcomes. Design/methodology/approach The authors conducted a large foresight study for the Czech Government using participatory as well as expert-based methods in 2021. Based on its first ex post evaluation, the accuracy of the expert and nonexpert estimations can be compared. Findings The results indicate that relative to the evaluation data, a simple aggregated top-down ranking of hundreds of nonexpert estimates collected through an online questionnaire performed slightly better than a ranking from a diversified group of dozens of selected experts from a multi-round Delphi study in estimating the future importance of global megatrends. Aggregating the estimates of nonexperts using the “surprising popularity” mechanism did not further improve the results. Research limitations/implications More consequent evaluations should be conducted to support the validity of the results. Further investigation into the use of participatory methods and experimentation with the novel foresight designs is also suggested. Practical implications The findings support the case for working with simple participative methods as a supportive method in the process of conducting a strategic foresight study. Social implications The results show that it is reasonable to combine inputs from experts and nonexperts. This might have implications for the role of expertise in strategic foresight. Originality/value This research helps to mitigate the existing lack of literature on the evaluation of participatory methods in foresight.