Econometric Modeling and Forecasting of Gasoline Prices in Russia

This article discusses an econometric approach to forecasting the cost of gasoline in Russia. In the context of volatile world oil prices and changes in domestic economic policy, the task of forecasting the dynamics of gasoline prices becomes extremely relevant. The paper analyzes the main factors affecting the cost of gasoline, such as oil prices, the dollar exchange rate, excise duties and taxes, inflation, and the cost of oil production. Based on these factors, an econometric model is built that allows us to identify the relationships between variables and predict future price changes. Forecasting is carried out using methods of correlation and regression analysis of time series. The result of the study is a forecast for the cost of AI-95 gasoline for 2025. The results obtained can be useful for government agencies in developing economic policy, as well as for fuel market participants in their strategic planning.