Local decline and populism

Support for right-wing populist parties is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity and is especially concentrated in regions that have experienced economic decline. It remains unclear, however, whether the spatial externalities of local decline—including homelessness and crime—boost support for populist parties, even among those not directly affected by such decline. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap in two ways. First, we gather novel data on a particularly visible form of local decline, high-street vacancies, that comprise 83,000 premises in England and Wales. Second, we investigate the influence of local decline on support for the right-wing populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) between 2009 and 2019. We find a significant positive association between high-street vacancy rates and UKIP support. These results enhance our understanding of how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences and behaviour, particularly in relation to right-wing populism. • We gather new panel data on 83,000 retail premises to measure visible local decline. • Novel use of high-street vacancies as proxy for local economic decline. • High-street vacancies strongly predict support for right-wing populist parties. • Effects hold for those not directly employed in retail, indicating broader impacts. • Revitalizing main streets may help counter rising support for populist candidates.