The impact of climate change on food security in the Middle East and North Africa: Challenges and adaptation strategies

Faced with the growing challenges of climate change, the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region is particularly vulnerable due to its high dependence on food imports and limited natural resources. This article analyzes the impact of climate change on food security in the region using a quantitative approach based on panel data covering the period 2000–2022. The analysis relies on a random-effects panel regression model applied to a sample of ten countries. The objective is to examine how climatic factors, agricultural practices, and socio-economic conditions influence food availability. The results indicate that a 1°C increase in average temperature reduces food availability by approximately 8.2 kcal/person/day, while the effect of precipitation is not statistically significant. In contrast, resilience-related variables such as irrigation, climate-resilient seeds, and access to agricultural credit positively contribute to food productivity. However, high dependence on food imports increases the structural vulnerability of the countries studied. The study recommends the implementation of integrated policies to strengthen resilience in the face of future climate challenges. The first n graph illustrating the evolution of food security in MENA countries over time, using the per capita food availability indicator (kcal/person/day).Change in temperature and rainfall (2000-2022) → Curve graphs showing the trend in climate variables in the MENA region.Trend in per capita food availability (kcal/person/day) → Curve graph showing variation in food security.Impact of resilience and control variables → Bar or line graphs showing changes in access to agricultural credit, infrastructure, food dependency, etc. • Climate change effects on food security in MENA from 2000 to 2022 • Combines climate, resilience, and control variables in the analysis • Random-effects model captures regional and time-based climate dynamics • Confirms climate shocks significantly impact food security outcomes • Proposes strategies to boost food system resilience in MENA region