Predicting current and future spatial patterns of nature’s contributions to people from species distribution models

NCP mapping workflow from species. 1) We used the table relating 2,066 species to 17 NCPs ( Rey et al., 2023 ) to retrieve information on their relationships (positive, neutral or negative). See section 2.2.1 for additional details. 2) We modelled species distributions using the N-SDM platform (Adde et al., 2023) and a new set of environmental variables (Külling, Adde et al., 2024). High-resolution (25 m) species distribution maps were produced for Current (1980–2010) and future (2020–2049 and 2070–2099) periods under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). See section 2.2.2 for additional details. 3) Using the relationship table and the species distribution maps, we computed maps for individual NCPs, NCP categories, and all NCPs for the target periods and scenarios (more detailed in section 2.2.3). NCP mapping workflow from species. 1) We used the table relating 2,066 species to 17 NCPs (Rey et al., 2023) to retrieve information on their relationships (positive, neutral or negative). See section 2.2.1 for additional details. 2) We modelled species distributions using the N-SDM platform (Adde et al., 2023) and a new set of environmental variables (Külling, Adde et al., 2024). High-resolution (25 m) species distribution maps were produced for Current (1980-2010) and future (2020-2049 and 2070-2099) periods under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). See section 2.2.2 for additional details. 3) Using the relationship table and the species distribution maps, we computed maps for individual NCPs, NCP categories, and all NCPs for the target periods and scenarios (more detailed in section 2.2.3). • Integration of species–NCP associations with SDMs to map NCPs under current and future conditions in the Swiss Alps. • Individual NCPs exhibit distinct spatial correlations between them across time and climate scenarios. • Under RCP4.5, the highest NCP predictions are projected to shift toward the colline–montane edge; under RCP8.5, mainly to the montane belt. • The average value of most NCPs is projected to decline under both moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios. The degradation of climate and biodiversity are two major crises humans are facing and for which rapid action is needed. Both crises are partially linked and susceptible to threaten nature’s contribution to peoples (NCPs). Hence, it is essential to find efficient strategies for protecting key areas for both biodiversity and NCPs for a sustainable future. Studies at various scales have already used species distributions and NCP maps to identify the most optimal areas for safeguarding both components. Yet, an evaluation of how changes in species distributions could affect NCPs was still lacking. Here, based on a recently established table of relationships between more than 2,000 native vertebrate and tracheophyte species and 17 NCPs, we propose and illustrate a novel approach to predict the spatial distribution of NCPs from individual species predictions for the current period and four future time-scenarios in the Western Swiss Alps. Predictions of the different NCPs and their categories show varying degrees of spatial correlation, with some NCPs revealing very distinct patterns across time-scenarios. An overall decrease of NCP value is predicted for each future time-scenario. According to our results, NCPs would not increase at higher elevations in the subalpine and alpine belts and would remain high at mid-elevations in the montane belt along river valleys. Our study highlights the potential to predict NCPs directly from species predictions in biodiversity assessments, allowing a better understanding and a better anticipation of the way species contribute to NCP and human well-being. The species-based NCP prediction approach we propose constitutes a major new asset to improve spatial conservation planning, but the development of such species-NCP tables should continue, and larger databases be compiled.