Evaporation losses from residential swimming pools and water features under climate variability and change

Abstract Numerous studies have evaluated maximum evaporation rates from open water bodies (Eo). However, relatively little attention has been paid to evaporation losses from residential swimming pools and outdoor water features. This study evaluates the combined impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate change on Eo for 1859 water bodies with total area ~173,500 m 2 on Palm Jumeirah Island, Dubai. Historic (2010–20) annual mean Eo from open water was estimated via the Linacre (1977) equation to be ~600 million litres (ML). Annual Eo projected under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 by 2050 could be 627 ML under La Niña, 633 ML for neutral, and 675 ML under El Niño conditions. The present Eo equates to the water demand of 3000 people—or about 30% of the Palm's population—assuming 550 litres per capita per day. Moreover, replacing evaporated pool water with desalinated water contributes about 1.2 million kg CO 2 each year. Such evidence enables authorities to reevaluate plans for future developments, including swimming pool density, and domestic water demand reduction targets under the 2036 UAE Water Security Strategy. Mandatory adaptation measures, such as installing pool covers, could be introduced to reduce evaporative losses. Further research is needed to estimate open water evaporation from the whole of Dubai as a baseline for assessing impacts of future developments and climate change.