Potential Distribution of Anoplophora horsfieldii Hope in China Based on MaxEnt and Its Response to Climate Change

<i>Anoplophora horsfieldii Hope</i>, a potential pest of the Cerambycidae family, is widely distributed throughout China, where it can cause damage to various living tree species. It has emerged as a critical invasive organism threatening China's agricultural and forestry production as well as ecological security. This study comprehensively analyzed the key environmental factors influencing the geographical distribution of <i>A. horsfieldii</i> and its spatiotemporal dynamics by integrating multi-source environmental data and employing ecological niche modeling. Model validation demonstrated high reliability and accuracy of our predictions, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.933, Kappa coefficient of 0.704, and true skill statistic (TSS) reaching 0.960. Our analysis identified four dominant environmental factors governing the distribution of <i>A. horsfieldii</i>: mean diurnal range (Bio2), temperature annual range (Bio7), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19). Under current climatic conditions, the total potential suitable distribution area for <i>A. horsfieldii</i> was estimated at 212.394 × 10⁴ km², primarily located in central, southern, eastern, southwestern, and northwestern China. Future projections under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) suggest significant reductions in highly and moderately suitable habitats, while low-suitability areas may expand into central, eastern, and southwestern regions, with Chongqing, Henan, and Anhui potentially becoming new suitable habitats. Concurrently, the centroid coordinates of suitable habitats exhibited a directional shift toward Guangdong Province, with the overall distribution pattern demonstrating a spatial transition characterized by movement from inland to coastal areas and from higher to lower latitudes. This study provides scientific theoretical support for forestry authorities in controlling the spread of <i>A. horsfieldii</i>, while establishing a solid foundation for future ecological conservation and biosecurity strategies. The findings offer both theoretical insights and practical guidance for pest management and ecosystem protection.