Hegemonic retreat: Transactionalism as foreign policy

Abstract The likely foreign policy imperatives of President Donald Trump's second term are interpreted through a world‐systems interpretation of cycles of hegemony and the related geography of seapower. A realist transactional approach is the likely framework for Trump's foreign policy imperatives. United States foreign policy is understood through a political economy lens that identifies national economic competition, especially over new innovations, as the foundation for global geopolitical competition. The temporal context of declining US hegemony explains the resort to transactionalism and the retreat from liberal internationalism. The geographical focus of United States foreign policy will be Asia, primarily an attempt to challenge the rise of China. Established European alliances may be of lesser value in a transactionalist approach. The geopolitical calculations of Trump's foreign policy are explained by the geography of seapower, the US global presence in far waters, and the resulting friction in China's near waters, the western Pacific and South China Sea. National economic competition has global implications, especially the growing influence of China in Africa and Latin America, and decreased US influence. The US transactional approach is ill‐suited to global and multi‐lateral issues, such as nuclear weapons proliferation. The national economic concerns of President Trump are contextually relevant but are unlikely to be successfully ameliorated by the likely foreign policy initiatives.