Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Forces of the Ecosystem Service Sustainability in Typical Watertown Region of China from 2000 to 2020

Quantitative assessment of the ability of the ecosystem service (ES) and its driving forces is of great significance for achieving regional SDGs. In view of the scarcity of existing research that evaluates the sustainability of multiple ES types over a long time series at the township scale in a typical Watertown Region, this study aims to address two key scientific questions: (1) what are the spatiotemporal changes in the ecosystem service supply–demand index (ESSDI) and ecosystem service sustainability index (ESSI) of a typical Watertown Region? and (2) what are the key factors driving the changes in ESSI? To answer the above two questions, this study takes the Yangtze River Delta Integrated Demonstration Zone (YRDIDZ) as the study area, utilizing multi-source remote sensing and other spatiotemporal geographical datasets to calculate the supply–demand levels and sustainable development ability of different ES in the YRDIDZ from 2000 to 2020. The main findings were as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the mean ESSDI values for habitat quality, carbon storage, crop production, water yield, and soil retention all showed a declining trend. (2) During the same period, the mean ESSI exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, decreasing from 0.31 in 2000 to 0.17 in 2020, with low-value areas expanding as built-up areas grew, while high-value areas were mainly distributed around Dianshan Lake, Yuandang, and parts of ecological land. (3) The primary driving factors within the YRDIDZ were human activity factors, including POP and GDP, with their five-period average explanatory powers being 0.44 and 0.26, whereas the explanatory power of natural factors was lower. However, the interaction of POP and soil showed higher explanatory power. The results of this study could provide actionable ways for regional sustainable governance: (1) prioritizing wetland protection and soil retention in high-population-density areas based on targeted land use quotas; (2) integrating ESSI coldspots (built-up expansion zones) into ecological redline adjustments, maintaining high green infrastructure coverage in new urban areas; and (3) establishing a population–soil co-management framework in agricultural–urban transition zones.