Modeling Effects of Source Reduction Strategies to Mitigate the Mosquito Population Growth on the Dengue Transmission Dynamics in India

ABSTRACT In this paper, a fractional‐order model for dengue dynamics has been considered in studying the role of source reduction in controlling the growth of the mosquito population. The basic reproduction number for dengue is derived, and it is shown that the disease will tend to extinction if and will remain endemic for . The model system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation phenomenon with respect to the fractional order ( ) and measures taken for source reduction. The model closely fits the data of dengue patients in India collected from 1990 to 2021. The parameters estimated through actual data are used to validate analytical results and predict future dynamics of the disease. The study demonstrates that the disease would be endemic in the country and could be controlled, mitigated, or wiped out by destroying the eggs and larvae of mosquitoes, which are the sources of the growth of the mosquito population. The study also suggests different control measures for the spread and control of the disease