Beyond wind and rainfall: insights into Hurricane Helene fatalities with the National Risk Index

This study analyzes county-level fatalities from Hurricane Helene, the second deadliest mainland U.S. hurricane in the past 50 years, focusing on the roles of wind speed, rainfall, and the National Risk Index—a composite measure of expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Beyond physical exposure, pre-existing community risk conditions emerged as strong and consistent predictors of fatalities. State-level variations further highlight the importance of localized risks in shaping disaster impacts. These results call for a fundamental shift toward strengthening risk communication and investing in disaster risk reduction efforts that address structural vulnerabilities in an era of intensifying climate extremes.