Radial Rainfall Pattern Changes of Intense Over‐Ocean Tropical Cyclones Under Global Warming: Insights From an MRI HighRes CMIP6 Simulation
Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important hazard. Radial rainfall patterns of intense over‐ocean TCs under global warming are investigated using the MRI HighRes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulation with the SSP5‐8.5 high‐emission scenario. These patterns are characterized by four parameters: rainfall at the cyclone center , maximum rainfall , radius of maximum rainfall , and e‐folding radius . We find strongly correlates with a moisture convergence proxy—boundary‐layer maximum wind times column moisture divided by the radius of maximum wind—across different intensities and under climate change. Under warming, mean and increase by 8.65%/K and 8.86%/K, while and shrink by 1.03%/K and 1.79%/K, respectively. Notably, under warming, exhibits greater sensitivity to TC intensity, and its increases are mainly attributed to column moisture increase.
Authors
- Xiaoming Shi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5329-7851)
- Dazhi Xi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4096-8441)
- Mengqian Lu
- Ralf Toumi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5203-1883)
- Lujia Zhang
- Jianan Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7963-4414)
Institutions
- Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HK)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Published
- 2025-05-02
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116146
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.30