Spatial risk patches of the Indian crested porcupine crop damage in southeastern Iran

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) represent a significant global issue, leading to economic losses for humans due to the destruction of agricultural products and livestock. This study was conducted in southeastern Iran with two primary objectives: to identify the major environmental variables influencing spatial risk modeling and to pinpoint spatial risk patches and hotspots of agricultural damage caused by the Indian crested porcupine (ICP) in this region. An ensemble modeling technique was used to evaluate the spatial risk of agricultural damage caused by the ICP, drawing on 111 independent conflict records and nine environmental factors. The findings indicated that the distance to villages, orchard density, cropland density, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index emerged as the most significant variables in modeling the spatial risk of crop damage from the ICP in the study region. Nine spatial risk patches, comprising approximately 8% of the study area, were identified for crop damage attributed to the ICP. The three largest spatial risk patches, located in the west of the study area, accounted for 80% of all predicted crop damage patches caused by the ICP. Additionally, hotspots of agricultural damage were clustered in the western part of the study area. Conservation areas covered about 8% of the predicted spatial risk patches and 2.4% of the hotspots of agricultural damage, respectively. Urgent attention is needed to reduce human-ICP conflicts in the identified risk patches. We strongly recommend implementing fencing around cultivated lands and individual tree trunks, as well as enhancing local knowledge and insurance for agricultural products, to mitigate human-ICP conflicts in the study area.