Ecological Value Measurement Assessment and Forecasting in Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, China

This study employs an accounting approach to quantitatively assess Chengdu’s ecological value, focusing on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, climate regulation, water conservation, water quality purification, and air quality improvement. The value of each indicator is calculated and visualized using ArcGIS 10.8, with predictions made for four future time intervals. The analysis reveals the spatial distribution patterns of ecological value across Chengdu. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2015 to 2019, Chengdu’s ecological value indicators demonstrated a positive growth trend, with notable increases in recreation services (CNY 178.5 billion), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fisheries (CNY 32.88 billion), and water conservation (CNY 9.26 billion). Values exhibited a general decrease from the city center outward. (2) Water quality purification, air quality improvement, and pest control values exhibited slight declines in 2015, 2017, and 2019 compared to 2015. (3) Ecological values demonstrate spatial diversity, with lower values in central areas for categories such as soil conservation and a “high-low-high” pattern for water conservation. Recreation services exhibit a “high in the center, low around the edges” pattern. (4) The gray prediction model forecasts that by 2027, the values for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, water conservation, and soil conservation will double relative to 2015. Climate regulation and air quality improvement values are predicted to triple, while water quality purification exhibits minimal change. Pest control is expected to decline to 67% of its 2015 value, while the value of recreation services will increase to 12 times its 2015 value. The results of this study reveal the evolutionary characteristics of the ecological value volume index in Chengdu, fill a gap in the field of ecological value volume measurement and prediction in the region, and provide scientific support for understanding the evolutionary trajectory of Chengdu’s ecological environment.