Sustainability of Fisheries in the Context of Climate Change and Variability in the Zanzibar Archipelago

Approximately 10 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa depend on fisheries as their primary source of livelihood. An additional 90 million participate in fishing as a supplementary source of income. Climate change is significantly impacting fish populations and their ecosystems. Key factors include rising sea temperatures and increasing sea levels. Furthermore, alterations in ocean currents, heightened salinity due to evaporation, and the occurrence of more frequent and intense cyclones also contribute to these disruptions. This study examines the impacts of climate change on the sustainability of fisheries in North Unguja, Zanzibar. Specifically, it seeks to address the following questions; How do fishers perceive the changing climate? To what extent is the fishery affected by the impacts of climate change? How do fishers adapt to the changing climate? This study collected both quantitative and qualitative data. Quantitative data were gathered through a questionnaire survey, while qualitative data were obtained from key informant interviews. Climate data from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) on temperature and rainfall (1992-2023) were also used. Quantitative data were analysed descriptively using SPSS, and qualitative data were examined through content analysis, involving the coding of data and drawing conclusions from emerging themes. The findings revealed that the climate is changing, characterised by an increase in temperature, alterations in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of storms. The meteorological temperature and rainfall data from the Tanzania Meteorological Agency corroborated the perceptions of the fishers. The study also revealed a decrease in fish catch, partially attributed to the impacts of climate change, which could lead to increased poverty and malnutrition in North Unguja, Zanzibar. Additionally, the findings indicated that over 81 percent of respondents have not implemented any adaptation strategies, despite their awareness of climate change. This may be attributed to the low adaptive capacity of fishers in the study area. In general, climate change poses a significant threat to the sustainability of fisheries in North Unguja, Zanzibar, and jeopardises progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in relation to poverty reduction (Goal 1) and food security (Goal 2). This study recommends that the Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, along with relevant stakeholders, enhance the adaptive capacity of fishers by facilitating access to advanced fishing vessels for exploring new fishing grounds. Additionally, it advocates for fisheries research institutes to focus on the development of climate-resilient fish species. Furthermore, fishers in North Unguja and surrounding areas should explore alternative livelihoods and diversify their income sources to bolster resilience against both current and future climate-related impacts.