Determination of Russian Export Opportunities Based on the use of DSGE-modeling Methods

In this paper, the country’s export potential is assessed using DSGE modeling mechanisms. Within the framework of the hypothesis we proposed, the most significant groups of factors are economic, political and social factors. Other factors are not involved in the assessment. The following results were obtained based on the conducted research: It was revealed that the most important task of a unified socio-economic policy is to develop measures to accelerate the development of industry and its industry complexes. The tool for implementing this task should be the state industrial policy, which sets priorities and target guidelines for the development of industries and industries that ensure the achievement of national goals and target indicators of strategic development, as well as the implementation of national projects and state programs. In addition, special attention should be paid to industries and industries that ensure overcoming technological backwardness, which will ensure the achievement of key priorities of the country’s socio-economic development. As a negative conclusion, it should be noted that the adopted Federal Law on Industrial Policy did not meet the expectations of specialists in the fi eld of creating a high-tech domestic industrial industry. The law did not provide for the priority of industrial policy in the real sector of the economy and did not determine the priorities for the development of industries and production facilities included in the industry. This policy did not include specific goals, objectives and parameters for the development of industries and production facilities, as well as levels of gradual achievement of target indicators for the future. It has been proven that the main influence in the formation of a unified industrial policy should be aimed at modernizing the industry, creating conditions for investing in raising the technological level of all its industries. It has been revealed that for innovative economic growth and the revival of the technological competitiveness of industry, it is necessary to implement a set of interrelated measures to attract private and public investment, subsidies and preferential loans, and accelerated development of scientific and technical developments. According to the business community and independent experts, inaccessible loans are the main obstacle to expanding production and mastering the production of new products and introducing new technologies.