Harnessing water for peacebuilding: the drivers of water-based conflicts in Sudan

Abstract Water-related disputes frequently occur at national, community, and local levels, often escalating for various reasons. Until the end of 2024, insufficient attention has been paid to the drivers of water-based conflicts, and a systematic understanding of how these drivers contribute to water-based conflicts remains lacking. This study aims to identify and understand how the drivers influence water-based conflicts. Data were collected from nine states in Sudan, including South Darfur, North Darfur, North Kordufan, White Nile, Gezira, Gedarif, Kassala, Red Sea, and River Nile states by engaging various stakeholders through a structured questionnaire and semi-structured interviews to explore potential causes of water conflicts. A Chi-square test assessed the association between variables and water-based conflicts, followed by regression analysis to identify significant drivers. The findings reveal significant associations (p < 000) between the variables of competition for water among users, coordination between water users and service providers, cooperation among water-related institutions, systems for water users to participate, policies, laws, or rules governing water management, water user groups, and water-related conflicts. Coordination among water-related institutions does not significantly (p .107) predict water conflicts. Regression analysis reveals that coordination among water users and service providers, as well as water management policies and water user groups, significantly (p < 001, R 2 = .858) predict water-based conflicts. Factors such as competition between urban and rural users, competition between farmers and pastoralists, and women’s involvement in water management also significantly (p ≥ .005) predict water-based conflicts. The findings suggest establishing inclusive water management committees, comprising representatives from all stakeholders, to ensure equitable decision-making. Update the water legislation and strengthen community-based water management associations, which will serve as platforms for dialogue and negotiation on water sharing. This way, the water resources can serve as a foundation for cooperation and sustainable peace rather than a source of conflict.