Digital finance, green credit, and the low-carbon development of China’s manufacturing industry

Abstract Achieving the low-carbon transformation and development of the manufacturing industry is a pragmatic approach to ensuring the high-quality development of China’s economy; this goal necessitates the effective support of digital finance. This study utilizes panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) between 2011 and 2022 to analyze the impact of digital finance on the manufacturing industry’s low-carbon development and to examine the mediating role of green credit. The empirical results indicate that digital finance significantly promotes the manufacturing industry’s low-carbon development; green credit serves as a significant mediator in this process; and the promotional effect of digital finance varies across different regions. Regions and coastal areas that first implemented carbon emissions trading markets have demonstrated more significant positive outcomes in leveraging digital finance to accelerate low-carbon manufacturing. Accordingly, this study recommends accelerating the integration of digital finance with the manufacturing industry and highlighting variations in the initiation times of carbon emissions trading markets, distinctions between coastal and inland regions, and locational differences to enhance the effectiveness of green credit policy implementation.