Characterization of wildfire activity and relation to Fire Weather Index in the Valencia Region between 1993 and 2022

Abstract Wildfire activity has decreased in the Valencia Region (Eastern Spain) in the last three decades in ignition and spread terms despite adverse climatological conditions caused by climate change, measured by the Fire Weather Index (FWI) in this study. We divided the study area into seven homogenous regions and split fires by cause to disaggregate the results, and to check for trends in these variables. The most relevant results were: 1) wildfire activity, especially in ignition terms, is decoupled from meteorological danger; 2) annual and interannual FWI variation fits changes in wildfire activity, although the decreasing fires trend masks any significant correlation; 3) summer is the most dangerous season, although large fires and adverse climatological conditions may occur in other seasons; 4) the majority of fires are manmade, with natural fires predominating in the northwest; 5) wildfires undergo significant regional differences that fit the type and intensity of the land use that predominates in each region; 6) the FWI is a good indicator of fire danger, and higher FWI values result in large and abundant fires; 7) responsible action and awareness have resulted in less wildfire activity in recent decades. While the increase in funds and equipment to prevent and combat fires has reduced their impact, ever more adverse conditions in the future caused by climate change will require making more effort to deal with wildfires by placing the focus beyond the warmest summer months.