Modeling the impact of vaccine campaigns on the epidemic transmission dynamics of chikungunya virus outbreaks
A licensed chikungunya vaccine now exists; however, it remains unclear whether it could be deployed during outbreaks to reduce the health burden. We used an epidemic in Paraguay as a case study. We conducted a seroprevalence study and used models to reconstruct epidemic transmission dynamics, providing a framework to assess the theoretical impact of a vaccine had it been available. We estimated that 33.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 30.1-36.0%) of the population became infected during the outbreak. Of these individuals, 6.3% (95% CI 5.8-6.9%) were detected by the surveillance system, with a mean infection fatality ratio of 0.013% (95% CI 0.012-0.014%). A disease-blocking vaccine with 75% efficacy deployed in 40% of individuals aged ≥12 years over a 3-month period would have prevented 34,200 (95% CI 30,900-38,000) cases, representing 23% of all cases, and 73 (95% CI 66-81) deaths. If the vaccine also leads to infection blocking, 88% of cases would have been averted. These findings suggest that the vaccine is an important new tool to control outbreaks.
Authors
- Simon Cauchemez (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9186-4549)
- Cynthia Vázquez
- Lucie Léon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0871-3510)
- José Luis Di Fábio (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1187-7110)
- Guillermo Sequera (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7707-1363)
- Shirley Villalba
- Pastor Pérez‐Estigarribia (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3143-0751)
- Arminder Deol (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7154-5505)
- Águeda Cabello (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5891-0064)
- Christinah Mukandavire (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4191-0361)
- Danny Scarponi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7587-9182)
- Henrik Salje (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3626-4254)
- Gabriel Ribeiro dos Santos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4668-8755)
- María José Cilleruelo Ortega (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1257-1655)
- Carmen C. Fernandez
- Elsi Vargas
- Ana Karina Ibarrola-Vannucci
Institutions
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Institut Pasteur (FR)
- Université Paris Cité (FR)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Yale University (US)
- Ministerio de Salud Pública y Bienestar Social (PY)
- IPS Central (PY)
- Universidad Nacional de Asunción (PY)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Medicine
- Published
- 2025-05-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-025-03684-w
- Citations
- 15
- Primary Topic
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 28.18
Funders
- Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations
- European Commission
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche
- National Institutes of Health