Assessment and forecast of atmospheric pollutant dynamics in the urban ecosystem of Zhytomyr

The object of the study is the atmospheric air of the urban environment and the dynamics of concentrations of the main pollutants (CO, VOC (H₂CO), PM10, PM2.5, PM1.0, NH₃, NO₂) for the period 2019–2024. One of the most problematic areas is the steady upward trend in CO concentrations with a projected increase of 15–20 % every 2–3 years, which poses significant risks to public health. Also, of concern are seasonal peaks in PM1.0 concentrations in winter and a tendency to increase the baseline level of this pollutant by 5–10 %. The study used statistical analysis of time series of pollutant concentrations, graphical and mathematical data processing, analysis of seasonal fluctuations and long-term trends. Forecasting was carried out taking into account climatic, anthropogenic and technological factors that affect the distribution of pollutants in the city's air basin. A comprehensive assessment of the temporal dynamics of atmospheric pollutants with the identification of multidirectional trends and seasonal fluctuations is obtained. This is due to the fact that the proposed approach has a number of features, in particular, taking into account the relationship between different pollutants and impact factors, as well as the introduction of predictive models taking into account seasonal cycles. This makes it possible to develop scientifically based recommendations for reducing the anthropogenic load on the urban air environment. Compared to similar known studies, this provides such benefits as the ability to more accurately predict changes in pollutant concentrations, optimize the environmental situation, reduce risks to public health and increase the effectiveness of environmental protection measures.