BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT OF MARITIME TRANSPORT IN UKRAINE DURING THE WAR: AN ECONOMIC AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Topicality. The relevance of this study is driven by the profound changes in the business environment of Ukraine's maritime transport sector caused by the full-scale war, which have affected port operations, logistics chains, and cargo turnover. An economic and statistical analysis enables an assessment of these changes, identification of key factors influencing the maritime transport business environment both with and without the impact of war, determination of major trends, and development of recommendations for the sector’s adaptation and recovery. Aim and tasks. The aim of this study is to conduct an economic and statistical analysis of changes in the business environment of Ukraine's maritime transport sector during the war and to identify the priority factors influencing its development. To achieve this, the dynamics of changes in the sector were analyzed, and a quantitative assessment of the key factors affecting its functioning was carried out to determine their prioritization. Research results. The study revealed significant changes in the business environment of Ukraine's maritime transport sector caused by the war. Statistical data analysis confirmed a substantial decline in cargo turnover, reduced utilization of port capacities, and shifts in the structure of export-import operations. The losses in grain cargo transportation, which constituted a key share of Ukraine’s maritime exports, were particularly pronounced. Regression analysis identified the main factors influencing the dynamics of maritime transportation during the war. These include grain production volumes, global grain prices, political stability, government effectiveness, and the rule of law. It was found that, in the pre-war period, corruption control also had a significant impact; however, after the war began, this factor lost its statistical significance. The obtained results confirm that the war has led not only to physical restrictions in port operations but also to changes in the economic factors shaping the development of maritime transport. Identifying these factors is crucial for designing effective solutions aimed at stabilizing and further developing the industry. Conclusion. The war has had a significant impact on the business environment of Ukraine's maritime transport sector, leading to a substantial decline in cargo turnover and a shift in the key factors influencing the industry. Regression analysis demonstrated that, in the pre-war period, the primary determinants of maritime transportation development were economic and managerial indicators, such as corruption control and government effectiveness. Meanwhile, during the war, the priority factors shifted to global grain prices, grain production volumes, political stability, and the rule of law. The changing significance of these factors highlights the need to rethink maritime transport development strategies, focusing on external macroeconomic conditions and political risks. The study confirms that for the stabilization and further development of the sector, it is crucial to adapt to new regulatory conditions, changes in global markets, and international factors that determine the prospects for restoring maritime transportation in Ukraine.