Coupling Coordination Analysis of the Marine Low-Carbon Economy and Carbon Emission Reduction from the Perspective of China’s Dual Carbon Goals

Against the backdrop of global warming, the marine low-carbon economy has emerged as a crucial pathway to achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This paper develops an evaluation index system for the marine low-carbon economy and carbon emission reduction. Using data from China’s coastal provinces (2012–2021), the study employs methods such as the entropy weight method, the coupled coordination model, K-means++ clustering, and grey correlation analysis to analyze the interaction between the marine low-carbon economy and carbon emission reduction. The study revealed the following findings: (1) From 2012 to 2022, the development of the marine low-carbon economy exhibited an “N”-shaped pattern, while the trend of carbon emission reduction generally followed the opposite pattern due to a “lag” effect. (2) The coordination between the two systems improved gradually, reaching an intermediate level from 2018 to 2021. (3) Among the internal factors related to the interaction between the marine low-carbon economy and carbon emission reduction, fossil energy consumption and wetland areas are the primary sensitivity factors. (4) External factor analysis through the use of grey correlation analysis revealed that the structure of the marine industry and technological innovation are the main drivers of the interaction, while carbon market trading showed the lowest correlation out of all the external factors, indicating that the mechanism design needs further improvement. (5) Compared with other coastal countries, China still has much room for progress in regard to the construction of MPAs and the restoration of blue carbon ecosystems. This paper introduces a method to quantify the development level of the marine low-carbon economy and assess the effects of marine carbon emission reduction, analyzing the coupling coordination between China’s marine low-carbon economy and carbon emission reduction. This research provides a foundation for Chinese policymakers and offers insights into green and sustainable development of the global marine economy.