Strategic conflicts in the aviation industry: Evolution and impact analysis using Graph Model with application to airspace conflict between European Countries and Russia

In this paper, a general framework of analyzing strategic conflicts in aviation industry is proposed based on Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). The ongoing conflict regarding the mutual closure of airspace between Russia and the European countries (EUC) and the nationalization of leased aircrafts by Russia are investigated using GMCR for the first time. Outcomes at five possible scenarios are analyzed by calculating the equilibria in which decision makers (DM) behave with different preferences, or with new choice of actions. The evolution analysis is further carried out at each scenario to demonstrate how the conflict could evolve from the starting state to the calculated equilibria. Amidst the ongoing military conflict, it can be suggested whether the conflicts regarding the airspace closure and the nationalization of aircraft can be solved at various scenarios and under what conditions, through convenient modeling and rigorous computation. The calculation result indicates that negotiation could help solve the conflict, while sanctions along could not force Russia to reopen its airspace. This research can provide an enhanced understanding of the conflict regarding airspace sanctions between Russia and the EUC and the guidance of actions for concerned decision makers.