ECONOMIC CYCLES IN CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY: TRANSFORMATION OF THEORETICAL APPROACHES AND PRACTICAL ANALYSIS TOOLS

The research is aimed at understanding modern theoretical approaches to the study of economic cycles and their relationship to GDP growth in conditions of global uncertainty, where the focus is on analyzing the factors influencing the phase fluctuations of economic activity, as well as identifying the mechanisms by which external and internal shocks affect the dynamics of economic growth. The purpose of the study is to analyze modern theoretical approaches to the study of economic cycles and identify new factors affecting their dynamics in the context of global uncertainty. Based on the data obtained, recommendations were developed for adapting economic policy to new realities, emphasizing the importance of an integrated approach to managing economic cycles and maintaining macroeconomic stability. Correlation and regression analysis of the GDP of the Republic of Kazakhstan and its components for 2010-2023 confirmed the significant positive impact of final consumption and gross accumulation, indicating that domestic demand and investment activity are key drivers of the country's economic growth. Therefore, in order to ensure sustainable development and increase investment attractiveness, Kazakhstan is recommended to continue economic diversification, develop infrastructure and strengthen measures to support and strengthen Kazakhstan's position to ensure long-term economic growth.