Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Effect on Forest Cover Dynamics: A CA–ANN Model in East Khasi Hills, Meghalaya, India

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes, driven by urbanization and human activities, play an important role in forest cover dynamics. Understanding the interactions of these factors is essential for addressing environmental impacts and formulating sustainable policies for forest management. This study investigated the effects of urbanization on LULC changes from 2002 to 2022 using support vector machine (SVM) algorithm in East Khasi Hills, Meghalaya, India. Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery from 2002 and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS imagery from 2013 and 2022 were used in this study. Seven land use classes, dense forest, moderate forest, sand bar, fallow land, settlement, water body, and agriculture were categorized. Dense forest has declined by 33 km2 from 2002 to 2022, indicating persistent deforestation. Moderate forest expanded until 2013 but declined later in 2022, suggesting degradation. Agricultural land increased gradually by 157 km2 from 2002 to 2022, likely due to shifting cultivation and land reclamation. Water bodies exhibited a minor fluctuation, while fallow land declined by 85 km2. Sand bars remained stable, showing only a minor change, suggesting minimal sedimentation effects. The results suggest the gradual expansion of built-up areas by 30 km2, along with the increase in agricultural lands. The predicted LULC changes for 2030 and 2040 indicate ongoing deforestation and rapid expansion of settlements. A comprehensive study with additional data is needed to help policymakers, particularly those responsible for forest management in the East Khasi Hills, to better understand LULC changes and their impact on forest cover dynamics.