MODELLING SURVIVAL ANALYSIS ON DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEY ON UNDER FIVE CHILDREN MORTALITY THROUGH COX PROPORTIONAL HAZARD MODEL AND LOG RANK TEST

Child Mortality is the factor that decides the well-being of a population and also serves as a key to the socio-economic status and the development of a nation. This study examined the factors that strongly lead to child mortality rate (Under-five mortality) in Nigeria. The study used data from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey(NDHS) of 2018, which reported that about 33,924 children where reported death prior to their fifth birth day. This places Nigeria among the Sub Sahara African country that still recorded the highest absolute number of child deaths. This study is aimed at Modeling the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey on under-five children Mortality, using Survival Analysis and Log rank test.We used the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier survival method to assess the influence of the sets of candidate factors on the survival of children aged under-five (U5) and the Log rank test to test for the significant difference between the levels of the factors in terms of the distribution of time until the event occurs (death). The result from the Log rank test also shows that Mothers educational level, Parents wealth status, Nutritional Status, and Birth interval all shows a significant difference between their levels in terms of the distribution of time until the event occurs since the p value is less than 0.05. While factors like Birth order shows no significant difference in the level of first birth, second to third birth, fourth to sixth birth and the seventh and above birth in terms of the distribution of time until the events occurs since the p value is greater than 0.05. Residence of parents also shows no significant difference in the level urban and rural area to the distribution of time until the events occurs since the p value is greater than 0.05.The study found evidence that Under five mortality in Nigeria is relatively high in the North western part of the country and suggested that may be under-five mortality in Nigeria is more associated with social, economic, environmental and demographic factors, than the health related factors. We conclude that for Nigeria to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, its public health interventions may need to take into account, the factors we have identified.