Forecasting Forex EUR/USD Closing Prices Using a Dual-Input Deep Learning Model with Technical and Fundamental Indicators

Predicting foreign exchange prices is a challenging yet important task due to the complex, volatile, and fluctuating nature of the data. Although deep learning models are efficient, accurate predictions of closing prices and future price directions remain difficult. This study proposes a dual-input deep-learning long short-term memory (LSTM) model for forecasting the EUR/USD closing price and predicting price direction using both fundamental and technical indicators. The model outperforms the second-best model, achieving a 29% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) in the training set and reductions of 24% and 23% in MAE and RMSE, respectively, in the test set. These results are confirmed through forecasting simulations, where performance metrics are consistent with those from the training phase. Finally, the model generates reliable three-day price forecasts, providing valuable insights into price direction.

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Publication Details

Journal
Mathematics
Published
2025-04-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/math13091472
Citations
4
Primary Topic
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
12.52

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article

Forecasting Forex EUR/USD Closing Prices Using a Dual-Input Deep Learning Model with Technical and Fundamental Indicators

Abolfazl Saghafi, Farhad Shokoohi, Maryam Bagherian
4 citations
Mathematics
Market Dynamics and Volatility
12.52
article

Forecasting Forex EUR/USD Closing Prices Using a Dual-Input Deep Learning Model with Technical and Fundamental Indicators

Abolfazl Saghafi, Farhad Shokoohi, Maryam Bagherian
article en
4 citations

Abstract

Predicting foreign exchange prices is a challenging yet important task due to the complex, volatile, and fluctuating nature of the data. Although deep learning models are efficient, accurate predictions of closing prices and future price directions remain difficult. This study proposes a dual-input deep-learning long short-term memory (LSTM) model for forecasting the EUR/USD closing price and predicting price direction using both fundamental and technical indicators. The model outperforms the second-best model, achieving a 29% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) in the training set and reductions of 24% and 23% in MAE and RMSE, respectively, in the test set. These results are confirmed through forecasting simulations, where performance metrics are consistent with those from the training phase. Finally, the model generates reliable three-day price forecasts, providing valuable insights into price direction.

MathematicsVol. 13(9)
Idaho State University (US), University of Nevada, Las Vegas (US), Saint Joseph's University (US)
University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Openalex Percentile: Top 2%
Market Dynamics and Volatility
12.52
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