Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in India

This study examines the long-term impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in India, utilising an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach. Given that over half of India’s workforce is employed in agriculture, enhancing productivity is crucial for improving the per capita income (PCI) of agricultural employees and ensuring food security for the country’s sizable population. The study used annual time series data for the period of 1981–2019. The findings reveal a strong positive influence of rainfall on agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), while temperature and agricultural employment growth have a negative impact on productivity. Additionally, overall economic growth positively influenced agricultural productivity. The results, consistent in both the long and short term, demonstrate a strong equilibrating relationship via an error correction term. These results emphasise the critical need for adopting climate-resilient agricultural practices and policies that can sustain productivity under rising temperatures and fluctuating rainfall conditions. JEL Codes: Q10, Q54, O40, C22