Short-Term Preliminary Evaluation of Suicide Following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake in Japan Using Time Series Analysis

<b></b> <i>Background</i>: The impact of earthquakes on mental health is profound. <i>Aim</i>: This study examines the short-term impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake (magnitude 7.6) in Japan in January 2024 on the number of suicides and investigates the existence of the <i>pulling together effect</i> or <i>honeymoon phase</i> in suicide trends. <i>Method</i>: Suicide data from disaster-affected areas in Ishikawa Prefecture from January 2017 to June 2024 were analyzed using Poisson regression and prophet models. <i>Results</i>: Both models identified fewer suicides than predicted for 3 consecutive months (March-May 2024). This trend was observed even when the affected areas were subdivided into multiple regions. <i>Limitations</i>: Economic factors and data on suicide attempts or mental disorders were not included in the analysis. <i>Conclusion</i>: This study provides evidence supporting the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase, suggesting that increased community support following a disaster temporarily reduces suicide risk.

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Publication Details

Journal
Crisis
Published
2025-04-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1027/0227-5910/a001003
Primary Topic
Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Short-Term Preliminary Evaluation of Suicide Following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake in Japan Using Time Series Analysis

T Arai
Crisis
Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
article

Short-Term Preliminary Evaluation of Suicide Following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake in Japan Using Time Series Analysis

T Arai
article en

Abstract

<b></b> <i>Background</i>: The impact of earthquakes on mental health is profound. <i>Aim</i>: This study examines the short-term impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake (magnitude 7.6) in Japan in January 2024 on the number of suicides and investigates the existence of the <i>pulling together effect</i> or <i>honeymoon phase</i> in suicide trends. <i>Method</i>: Suicide data from disaster-affected areas in Ishikawa Prefecture from January 2017 to June 2024 were analyzed using Poisson regression and prophet models. <i>Results</i>: Both models identified fewer suicides than predicted for 3 consecutive months (March-May 2024). This trend was observed even when the affected areas were subdivided into multiple regions. <i>Limitations</i>: Economic factors and data on suicide attempts or mental disorders were not included in the analysis. <i>Conclusion</i>: This study provides evidence supporting the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase, suggesting that increased community support following a disaster temporarily reduces suicide risk.

CrisisVol. 46(4)
Tama University (JP), Keio University (JP)
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 87%
Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
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