The Tragedy of Transition in Ethiopia and Sudan

The collapse of the 2018–19 political transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan was one of the great African tragedies of the past decade. Three main factors caused these promising democratic openings to devolve into violence and resurgent authoritarianism. Both transitions suffered from similar structural defects: they were top-down processes managed by segments of the old regime, while alternative forces were too divided to compel more inclusive outcomes. Regional and international dynamics played a role, with some external actors pursuing interventions that exacerbated conflict and others failing to take measures that could have bolstered peace. And the Ethiopian and Sudanese transitions were highly interdependent, with turmoil and collapse in each case reinforcing crises in the other.