Valley Dam Optimization Framework to Reduce Water-induced Conflict in Migratory Communities

Abstract Effective management of valley dams, crucial for sustaining water resources for migratory communities, necessitates strategic planning to harmonize maintenance with intermittent usage patterns to reduce water-induced conflict risk. This paper presents a valley dam optimization framework aimed at preserving dam integrity while efficiently allocating scarce water resources. A gravity model was employed to quantify water-related migration and to identify high risk conflict areas. The proposed framework enables evaluation of dam improvement works and water supply effects including migrant flow that creates clash points. An example application in Karamoja-Turkana in East Africa provided water management insights for migratory populations. The model application results showed that it is optimal and more beneficial to prioritize dam management based on water resources rather than population as the former had lower costs and achieved zero migrant flow (stationarity) earlier, significantly reducing conflict risk. Collaboration with migratory communities in dam planning and monitoring is encouraged to optimize incomplete dam usage and water provision, promoting sustainability and community resilience.